France: The Weight of Being Favorites
France have Mbappé in his prime, the deepest squad in the tournament, and the most pressure. What it means to be the overwhelming World Cup favorite — and why favorites often don't win.
The Number One Seed
If you asked 100 football analysts before the 2026 World Cup draw which team they expected to lift the trophy in New York on July 19, the majority would say France. Not because the game is predictable or the result is inevitable — it isn't — but because France have assembled the deepest, most technically complete squad in the tournament.
Kylian Mbappé is 27. He is in the peak years of what is already a career that places him in the conversation with Messi and Ronaldo. Around him, France have players who would start for almost any other team in the world: Aurélien Tchouaméni, Adrien Rabiot, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcus Thuram, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé, Mike Maignan in goal.
This is not a team with one exceptional player and ten adequate ones. This is a team where the bench, on a good day, beats most starting XIs in the tournament.
And yet.
Why Favorites Don't Win
Since 1998, the pre-tournament favorite has won the World Cup exactly once — Brazil in 2002, if you count them as favorites that year (they were, narrowly). Every other tournament has been won by a team that was expected to win, but not emphatically — France in 1998 (on home soil, medium favorite), Italy in 2006 (not the obvious pick), Spain in 2010 (first-time winners, heavy favorite but not overwhelming), Germany in 2014 (favorites), France in 2018 (favorites but not by an enormous margin), Argentina in 2022 (favorites but with Brazil and France equally likely).
The pattern is that overwhelming favorites carry psychological weight that affects performance. When you are expected to win every match, draws feel like losses. A single bad game creates crisis. The coaching decisions are scrutinized more intensely. The players feel the expectation from their country in a way that teams with lighter pressure don't.
France in Qatar 2022 reached the Final — they were overwhelming favorites that year too. They lost on penalties to Argentina after the most dramatic comeback in Final history. One of the best French tournament performances in years, and they went home second.
The Mbappé Factor
Kylian Mbappé at 27 is the best player in the world. Not "arguably" — most objective metrics of pace, goal contribution, dribble completion at the highest level of club football confirm it. His Real Madrid period has added tactical sophistication to the electric pace and finishing that was always there. He has won Champions League, La Liga, and every domestic honor available. The World Cup is the one thing left.
He grew up watching Zidane win the World Cup for France in 1998. He was born in 1998. The tournament that France won, in France, the year of his birth — this is the background of his football consciousness.
In Qatar 2022, Mbappé was the best player of the tournament. He scored a hat-trick in the Final. France lost. The image of him sitting on the pitch after the penalty shootout, face buried in hands, Messi celebrating twenty meters away — it's one of the defining images of that tournament.
In 2026, he's 27, at Real Madrid, in his absolute prime, with one more tournament to fulfill what the whole arc of his career has pointed toward.
The pressure on Mbappé specifically is extraordinary. Not the general pressure of being French — the specific pressure of being the best player in the world at a World Cup where everyone expects him to win it.
How he handles that pressure is the tournament's central individual narrative.
Group I: France's Path Is Comfortable
France are in Group I with Senegal, Norway, and Iraq.
Senegal — The most competitive opponent in the group. A physical, organized team with quality throughout the squad and the tournament experience of reaching the Quarter-final in 2002. France should handle them but it won't be straightforward.
Norway — Haaland is a problem. In a group match, a single Haaland goal from a set piece or one counter-attack moment can change everything. France have the quality to manage him, but "managing Erling Haaland" is never truly comfortable.
Iraq — France should win this comfortably and use it to rotate and manage squad fitness.
France's group stage campaign is about reaching the knockout rounds healthy and in form without revealing too much tactically. Didier Deschamps — or whoever manages France into this tournament — will use the group stage carefully.
The Tactical Question: Deschamps' Last Tournament?
Didier Deschamps has managed France since 2012. Two World Cup Finals (2018 winner, 2022 runner-up), one Euro Final (2016 runner-up). His record is exceptional. He is also, by 2026, 58 years old and has been discussing his future with the French federation for years.
Whether Deschamps is still manager going into 2026, or whether a new coach inherited this squad, matters. The squad's quality is the constant. The tactical organization — how the front three of Mbappé, Thuram, and Dembélé are deployed, whether the defensive block is organized correctly against high-pressing opponents — is the variable.
France's 2022 Final showed both their best (Mbappé's hat-trick) and their worst (the defensive organization in extra time, the inability to close the game out when 2–0 up in the second half). Those structural questions — how you stop a team from coming back when you're leading — are coaching questions as much as player quality questions.
The Honest Assessment
France will win the tournament is the most logical prediction. The squad depth, Mbappé's quality, and the structural integrity of their defense make them the favorite in every match they play. Tournament favorites win tournaments at an above-average rate — they're favorites for a reason.
France might not win because football is football. One penalty, one red card, one goalkeeper having a career match, one Mbappé hamstring strain in the Quarter-final — any of these produces a different outcome. Qatar 2022 showed that even the best team can lose. They often do.
The most interesting version of this tournament is one where France reach the Final and face either Brazil or Argentina — the only two teams with squads capable of matching them position by position. A France vs Brazil Final in New York on July 19 would be the greatest World Cup Final in history.
Whether it happens depends on 45 days of football, injury luck, referee decisions, and all the randomness that makes this game worth watching.
The Matches to Watch
France vs Senegal, June 16, MetLife Stadium, New York, 3:00 PM ET. France's opening match in the world's most watched stadium. The Senegalese diaspora in the New York area will make this a partial home match for Senegal. France need to start well.
France vs Norway, June 26, Gillette Stadium, Boston, 3:00 PM ET. Mbappé vs Haaland. The best player in the world against the most dangerous striker on the planet. Two players who may eventually be compared to each other across their careers, meeting for the first (and possibly only) time at a World Cup. This match alone is worth the price of a ticket.
Whatever France's tournament ultimately produces, that match in Boston is a football event.